Runoff elections put the position of the leaders in the Texas Republic to the test

AUSTIN, Texas – Tuesday's Texas primary runoffs are a test for two prominent Republicans: U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, who has stepped out of line on guns and the border, and powerful Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, who drew the ire of the party's far right by impeaching Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The fight to save their jobs has exposed the risks of dissent within Republicans and prompted both to backtrack in election contests that have become bitter and costly battles. A defeat for Gonzales, his supporters warn, would give Democrats a chance to flip a traditionally moderate district in November, while a change in leadership of the Texas House of Representatives could shift the state's politics even further to the right.

“You have to be a bully,” says Bill Miller, a longtime Republican strategist in Texas. “That's expected. If you're not willing to do that, you're an outsider.”

Other rainfall events in Texas are also attracting attention.

Katrina Pierson, a former spokeswoman for Donald Trump, is on the ballot for a seat in the state House of Representatives near Dallas. GOP voters are also choosing a challenger to Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted this month on conspiracy and bribery charges. Cuellar has said he is innocent.

Only one member of the House of Representatives has been knocked out of the race in this year's primary: Republican Rep. Jerry Carl of Alabama, who lost to another incumbent, Rep. Barry Moore, in an unusual primary after the state was forced to redraw congressional districts.

Gonzales, who received 45% of the vote in March after attracting five challengers, was tested in the primary like few of his Republican colleagues. He is running against Brandon Herrera, a gun-rights YouTube creator who calls himself “The AK Guy,” in the district where the 2022 Uvalde school shooting occurred.

“The Texas state party has moved very far to the right, even further than the Republicans in Washington, D.C.,” said Brian Smith, a political scientist at St. Edwards University in Austin, Texas. He called the disputes within the Texas Republican Party “a battle for the soul of the party.”

Gonzales enjoys the backing of party bigwigs such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, and last year he survived a rare rebuke from the state party unscathed. The rebuke followed his votes for federal protections for same-sex marriage and a bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre.

“My voting record is very strong on the Constitution,” the 20-year Navy veteran said in April. “I swore an oath to the Constitution when I was 18. And I've never stopped. … We can protect the Constitution and we can protect our children. It doesn't have to be an either/or.”

Herrera mocked Gonzales on social media, calling his campaign “desperate.”

“It's funny that three months ago I was 'just a YouTuber' and 'not a serious candidate,'” Herrera posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, noting that Johnson had attended a fundraiser for Gonzales. “When your enemies are in a wagon train, it's usually not a sign they're winning.”

At the state level, Phelan's two sessions as House Speaker would normally be considered a windfall for the Conservatives.

Since 2021, Texas has passed some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country, supported Abbott's headline-grabbing anti-immigration measures, banned gender-affirming medical care for minors, and eliminated diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in higher education.

But like Gonzales, Phelan has been rebuked by the state party for “lack of fidelity to Republican principles and priorities.” Hard-line Republicans have targeted him since the House voted to impeach Paxton last year, setting off a Senate trial that ended in Paxton's acquittal.

Paxton led a primary campaign to oust Phelan, who finished a close second behind oil and gas consultant David Covey. That leaves Phelan facing an uphill battle to win the nomination, and a loss would upend the party leadership in the state Capitol.