3 up, 3 down: Do these muscle cars indicate an emerging trend?

Among the many segments of the collector car hobby, muscle cars are one of the most established. Their market is more mature than the emerging collector SUV and Japanese segments, and demand remains broad and high, unlike the more limited audience for cars from the '50s and earlier. Lately, however, the trend for these cars as a group has also been one of the hardest to pinpoint.

The Hagerty Muscle Car Index, a stock market-like grouping of cars that represent a broad spectrum of the segment, fell five percent last quarter and eight percent last year. However, there were still standout muscle car sales in 2024, like this '70 Plymouth Hemi 'Cuda and this '70 Oldsmobile 4-4-2 W30. Because of these somewhat mixed messages Hagerty Price Guide Editor Greg Ingold has characterized the muscle market as “milder but more nuanced.”

One theme we're seeing lately is high-end cars – like the Plymouth Superbird we recently featured Price Guide Update – is falling, while some less powerful, less flashy or less mainstream models are seeing a slight uptick. Namely, here are some examples of muscle car values ​​that show some bright spots in the middle of the muscle car market as well as some of the recent weaknesses at the top end.

1968-69 mercury cyclone +15 percent

The Cyclone started in 1964 as a trim level of the Mercury Comet and evolved into its own, more luxurious version of the muscle car in 1968. The model offered a range of powerful engines and an attractive, sporty look, but never entered the shadowy era where wild exterior looks began to match the increasing power under Detroit's hoods. Although not as rare as some of the other cars on this list, 23,000 units were not sold in the entire '68-69 Cyclones series. So if you have one or are thinking about getting this upscale muscle alternative, it's one close to the lock that you'll be the only Cyclone at the next local auto show.

The Cyclone and its close relative, the Ford Fairlane (below), are the two on this list with the widest range of options and powertrains, so there are significant differences in value and percentage increase (the percentage increase) for each of these two models in the heading applies to the model as a whole). For example, a 1969 Cyclone Spoiler II in #2 (Excellent) condition with its powerful 428 Cobra Jet is up 26 percent to $89,000, while a 1969 Cyclone GT with a 302 cubic inch V- 8 in the same condition is still up a remarkable 16 percent at $28,500. Our evaluation team doesn't always see overall increases within a particular model – sometimes in a slow market a top configuration moves while smaller versions remain stable – so this evaluation behavior bodes well for the Cyclone.

1971-74 AMC AMX +10 percent

Although the AMX was originally a two-seater, AMC changed course in 1971 and made the AMX the top trim in a revised Javelin lineup. A polished interior, a revised fiberglass hood, and front and rear spoilers visually distinguished the AMX from the rest of the Javelin trims, while between the fenders sat a 285-horsepower 360-cubic-inch V8 or a 330-horsepower 401 engine. Cubic inch V-8. While it wasn't the most powerful car on the market, the Javelin/AMX was a stylish if somewhat unconventional competitor to the Big Three pony cars, and it proved very popular.

We selected the original 1968 to 1970 AMX for our 2023 bull market list and since then, this generation's values ​​have increased by almost five percent. However, 1971-74 AMX trim Javelins are up a more impressive ten percent. The good news is that even #2 (Excellent) condition 360 engine cars go for $36,600 and Driver Grade cars can be had for around $20,000. Budget a few grand more for the bigger engine.

1966-67 Ford Fairlane +8 percent

As with most midsize cars of the era, you could get your fifth-generation Ford Fairlane in decidedly non-muscular wagon and sedan forms (although you could get some powerful engines in these body styles). However, for the purposes of this exercise, we will only consider the two-door models. Still, there was a lot of variety in both equipment and engines – from the mild 289 V8 to the much wilder (and rarer) dual-quad 427. Furthermore, unlike the Cyclone, Fairlanes were produced in large numbers.

The values ​​for the more muscle-oriented Fairlanes increased by a total of eight percent in the latest issue of the magazine Hagerty Price Guide. A 320-horse, 390-cubic-inch 1967 Fairlane 500 Convertible tips the scales at $30,900 in No. 2 (Excellent) condition, an increase of 10.4 percent. The '66 Fairlane 500XL coupe with the 265-horsepower 390 is up 16 percent (to $35,000). The model's crown jewel, the '66 Fairlane 500 with a 427 engine, is up 16.4 percent in the same condition and is valued at 255,000. Before last quarter's strong performance, Fairlanes posted modest growth in 2023 as the market slowed. If there's a poster child for a solid '60s muscle cruiser that isn't flashy but gets the job done, then the Fairlane might be it – and it seems the market has taken notice.

1969 Chevrolet Chevelle COPO -13 percent

In 1969, GM's corporate policy of keeping engines larger than 400 cubic inches out of any car that wasn't the original size or named Corvette was still in effect. However, creative minds find solutions, and the Central Office Production Order – a program designed to allow special ordering of specific combinations of options for police, municipal and other fleet purposes – has been used to give great power to a few smart people. This year, 323 Chevelles with the 425 horsepower 427 cubic inch L72 engine were ordered through COPO. Don Yenko's S/C conversions were the most famous Chevelles to go through this process – 99 were made – although Berger Chevrolet in Michigan also famously used the COPO side door. The remainder was distributed to other dealers in the United States and Canada.

Although these Chevelles are among the rarest and most desirable Chevy muscle cars, our valuation team has observed a downward trend in prices. Across all conditions, non-Yenko COPO Chevelle values ​​dropped thirteen percent. Yenko S/C Chevelles performed slightly better, losing 10 percent in the final quarter. That doesn't mean they're all cheap, though – a COPO Chevelle in #2 (Excellent) condition is still worth $156,000 (a Yenko in the same condition will bring $165,000), and any car in condition #4 (sufficient) will still do six figures.

1967-69 Camaro SS -8 percent

From the factory, a set of SS badges on a first-generation Camaro meant there was at least a 350 cubic-inch V8 under the hood. Buyers who wanted more power could opt for a big-block 396 with up to 375 horses. When you stopped next to a Camaro SS at a stoplight, it was helpful to take a look at the front fender to see which V-8 engine you were dealing with. However, many clever owners replaced the chrome “396” with a more modest 350 badge to deceive potential opponents.

Regardless of the horsepower, the first generation Camaro Super Sports of all stripes are now down a significant eight percent overall. Of course, this leads to different values ​​across the spectrum – for example, a 300hp 1969 L48 350-powered Camaro SS in #2 condition (Excellent) is now valued at just over $61,000, up from $127,000 1968 SS convertible with the 375 hp 396 in the same condition are brought in. While these Camaros aren't top-of-the-line Chevys like the COPO Chevelles, they are desirable A-list cars from the muscle era, and our review team takes note when their values ​​change.

1968 Shelby GT500 KR -4 percent

It's not the most expensive Shelby Mustang – that honor goes to the '65 GT350R, and it's not designed to be as nimble as other Shelby creations, but the '68 Shelby GT500 KR has a lot going for it. 428 Cobra Jet power, the Shelby name and seriously good looks have put the GT500 KR at the top of the list for many Mustang fans. After a stable 2023, prices for convertibles fell four percent (to $204,000 for a No. 2 example) and 3.7 percent (to $155,000) for fastbacks in the first quarter of 2024. Although Ford's strength has generally been positive over this period, this particular Blue Oval reflects the broader segment's recent slowdown.